Flyweel Blog
ROAS, attribution, budget allocation, and channel strategy for performance teams. Practitioner-level posts with no generic SEO filler.
A look under the hood at how we train separate forecasting models for each ad channel, and why one-size-fits-all attribution models consistently underforecast Meta's variance.
Platform-reported ROAS and what you actually made are two different numbers.
How the best-performing DTC performance teams use forward-looking models to allocate spend before the cycle starts.
For a decade, performance marketing tools told you what happened. Pre-spend forecasting tells you what will happen.
Comparing platform ROAS across Meta and Google requires adjusting for attribution windows, customer intent, and lag curves.
The 30-day review cycle was designed for offline media. In a world of daily digital spend decisions, locking budgets for a month means most of your waste is baked in before you see the data.
The average DTC brand is misallocating 25-35% of weekly ad spend, not because they do not care, but because they have no forward signal.
Last-click, first-click, and even linear attribution all systematically overstate or understate specific channels.
AI-powered ad tools promise a lot. Fewer tackle the harder question: how should you allocate budget across channels before the money is committed?
Incrementality tests tell you whether a channel is actually driving revenue or just claiming credit.
TikTok's ROAS variance is higher than any other major paid channel. Understanding why is the first step to forecasting it reliably.
Q4 is where performance marketers lose the most money to misallocation. Here is how to plan with more signal.
